‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.

"Conditions are critical. LPG simply cannot be found," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are switching to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a western metro, accounts say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Food options are being cut, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Government Stance

Yet, the officials states there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and officials say supplies are being prioritized to households as tensions from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now effectively closed by the war.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for household consumption, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being prioritised for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been sparked by rumors. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.

India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but uneven distribution - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative states price gouging.

"Distributors are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."

For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.