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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still