🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.