A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
